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January 17, 2019

Should I wait to buy the dip?

Buying the dip – the coveted strategy (almost) all investors like to employ.

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Recent posts

January 10, 2019

Will tensions with Iran cause an oil spike?

Rising geopolitical tensions with Iran have led to some fears over potential oil supply shocks out of the Middle East.

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January 03, 2019

Why should I stay invested?

Equity markets ended the year on a high note, with the seasonal Santa Claus rally pushing the S&P 500 to a new all-time high.

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December 27, 2019

What does African swine fever have to do with the trade truce?

After two months of breathless anticipation, investors received an early holiday present on December 13th when the U.S. and China signaled agreement on a “Phase One” trade deal.

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December 20, 2019

What has been driving the market higher?

Markets have been on a tear in recent months, with the S&P 500 led higher by a combination of cyclical and value-oriented sectors.

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December 13, 2019

Can the Chinese economy withstand further trade discussions?

Our expectations for trade tensions next year are a bit nuanced: while we do not expect the heat to be turned up further, the stove is not completely turned off, leaving the water simmering.

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December 06, 2019

Will yields keep falling in 2020?

In November 2018, the U.S. 10-year reached a recent high of 3.26%. As trade tensions weighed on global growth prospects and the U.S. Federal Reserve cut rates, U.S. yields fell sharply in 2019. Over the last 12-months, the U.S. 10-year has returned over 14%, its best rolling 1-year return in over seven years.

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November 29, 2019

What does the uptick in M&A mean for private markets?

When corporations have cash on hand, there are a number of things they can do. From a financial standpoint, they can pay a dividend, repurchase their shares, or pay down their debt.

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November 22, 2019

Will the global economy improve in 2020?

Since peaking at 3.8% in 2017, economic growth outside of the U.S. has been decelerating, reaching 2.7% in the second quarter of 2019. Manufacturing has led the way down, especially in big export powerhouses in Europe and Asia.

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November 15, 2019

Will trade tensions ease in 2020?

2019 has delivered generous returns for equity investors with the S&P 500 returning 23% year-to-date.

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November 8, 2019

Will the Fed cut rates in December?

After nine rate hikes between December 2015 and December 2018, the Federal Reserve (Fed) has conducted a dramatic U-turn in 2019, cutting rates three times in three consecutive meetings.

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November 1, 2019

Is EM’s October outperformance sustainable?

After lagging behind U.S. equities for most of the year, emerging market (EM) equities outperformed in October, up 4.2% during the month versus 2.2% for the U.S. and 2.6% for developed markets overall. What has led to this reversal – and is it sustainable?

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October 25, 2019

Which earnings should I look at?

Investing 101 teaches us that when buying a share of stock, investors are paying for a share of future profits. What the textbooks do not tell us, however, is which measure of profits to look at.

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October 18, 2019

QE by another name? Clarifying announced balance sheet expansion

Following ongoing turbulence in the repo market, the Federal Reserve announced last week that it would begin expanding its balance sheet once more through permanent open market operations.

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October 11, 2019

Should I be worried about 3Q19 earnings?

The economic backdrop in 2019 has been characterized by weakness in manufacturing being offset by the resilience of services and the health of the consumer.

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October 4, 2019

Where are interest rates going from here?

For a market that is anticipating two more cuts through the end of next year, expectations may need to be tempered.

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September 27, 2019

Is Europe entering a recession?

Investors may want to consider reducing exposure to European financial markets during this period of heightened political, economic and policy uncertainty.

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September 18, 2019

Don’t fear the repo

The interest rate charged for repurchase agreements, or “repos”, spiked briefly on Monday, surging to as high as 8.5% by some measures.

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September 13, 2019

Is now the time for value?

While September seems to have brought calmer markets at the headline level, beneath the surface this has not been the case. The past few weeks have seen momentum and growth trades come under pressure, with value outperforming growth by 4.1% since August 27th.

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September 6, 2019

What is going on with Brexit now?

Earlier this week, political upheaval once again shook the United Kingdom. In a surprising turn of events, newly-appointed Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s government lost its majority after a former Conservative minister joined the Liberal Democrats.

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August 30, 2019

What is a fair price to pay for stocks?

Equity and fixed income markets have been on a wild ride in recent weeks, as recession fears, geopolitical uncertainty, and continued weakness in manufacturing have weighed on investor sentiment.

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August 23, 2019

Will the Fed cut rates again?

When the Fed cut rates in July 2019 for the first time since 2008, it went to great lengths to emphasize that it was an “insurance cut” – necessary to length the expansion but not the start of a prolonged easing cycle. The challenge for the Fed is that the economic data does not seem to be fitting its narrative.

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